When output dropped, and why.
Without plant sensor data, the cargo schedule is the best public signal of downtime: when a plant slows, ships stop leaving. This page finds those periods and checks them against weather and documented events.
When did output fall below its normal pace?
Shaded: detected low-output windows. Triangles: weather hazards. Diamonds: documented events (filings, permits, milestones).
Detectors. The first days after a terminal's first cargo are skipped as start-up.
Was weather behind the drops?
Matching rule. A window is weather-matched when a hazard is active from 3 days before to 10 days after the window begins, so long windows get no credit for coincidences late in the window. The chance rate places windows of the same length at random dates and applies the same rule 2,000 times. Limits. Five windows is a small sample; NOAA Storm Events misses some regional storms (Winter Storm Elliott, December 2022, appears only in the reanalysis data).